Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Healtcare - is more better?
Riveting piece of writing from New Yorkers' Atul Gawade. He parachutes into McAllen, TX and tries to find out why the county has the highest healthcare costs per capita in the country. I wont even try to distill what he has to say - worth reading every single word.
Monday, December 28, 2009
Free the markets? ... Now right now, not right now.
The housing crash has encouraged the government to get very hands on in managing the economy and put the free market principles on hold indefinitely. Calculated Risk has a list of government programs that are in place that impact the housing pricing.
The US government is now in the business of propping up house prices, and that is going to be bad for the economy and taxpayers in the medium and long run. The true price of housing is very hard to figure out right now - and certainly prices will be lower if these programs go away. And many of these programs are extremely inefficient, costing the taxpayers 10X more than the actual benefit delivered to the homeowners. And the artificially low interest rates are also wreaking havoc on many parts of the economy and causing a boom in risky assets - and that bubble will pop sooner or later. The quicker these distortionary policies end, the better off the economy is going to be. Until then, rational people will stay clear of investing in anything that has to do with housing - that puts your financial fate on the hand of the government, a risk that caclulates out to be not worth taking.
The US government is now in the business of propping up house prices, and that is going to be bad for the economy and taxpayers in the medium and long run. The true price of housing is very hard to figure out right now - and certainly prices will be lower if these programs go away. And many of these programs are extremely inefficient, costing the taxpayers 10X more than the actual benefit delivered to the homeowners. And the artificially low interest rates are also wreaking havoc on many parts of the economy and causing a boom in risky assets - and that bubble will pop sooner or later. The quicker these distortionary policies end, the better off the economy is going to be. Until then, rational people will stay clear of investing in anything that has to do with housing - that puts your financial fate on the hand of the government, a risk that caclulates out to be not worth taking.
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Steve Jobs Keynote Marathon
Watching a series of Jobs' keynotes at Macworld after he took over the reins in 1997. A summary of his presentations:
1997:
* Select a new board of directors
* Create meaningful partnerships (adobe, intuit, and MICROSOFT)
* Focus on being great, and not on competitors
* Key message in sober tone - focus on survival
1998:
* Kick off talk with Maslow's hierarchy of needs - survival, safety, social, esteem, self actualization - and how apple is progressing in these areas
* iMac
* Simplify product lineup (Pro/Consumer, desktop/laptop) - Classic!
* Transition from Os8 to OsX
1999:
* Quicktime streaming server (limited impact, but contributed to iTunes)
* Os9 (key feature: Sherlock). This was a stopgap anyways until OsX.
* iMac (new usb devices, software - including Halo, IBM Viavoice, MS Office 98)
* The big announcement is iBook - the consumer laptop. (Kodak Moment: It has a ... HANDLE. crowd goes nuts)
* And ONE more thing - Airport wireless networking (crowd goes nuts again)
2000:
* Mac OsX. Single OS strategy.
* Carbon, Cocoa, Aqua
* ... you spend months working on a button ...
* Red, yellow, green traffic lights for close, minimize, maximize.
* Key technique - set up a challenge for yourself and blow it away. (But how do you view the dock if its too small --- well we have something called magnification - crowd goes nuts)
2001:
* Retail stores
* powerbook titanium g4
* OsX launch in summer
* iTunes - more powerful yet simpler. And iPod. The shoots of apple's media strategy.
The story is pretty clear - Jobs focused on what was key at any given point in the company's history and put his all and his best people into that problem. He obsessed over it - and out thought everyone else. The results are nothing but spectacular.
The presentation technique is outstanding as well. No bullets. The projector is to show graphics, and not a mnemonic device. The audience is there to listen to you, and not to read stuff off the screen. His style is thoughtful and respectful - he makes the audience believe that he is in analysis mode and their feedback is valuable. The phrasing is precise - with emphasis on key phrases, which are reinforced on screen. The excitement comes through. There is very little focus on self, and everything is about the products.
1997:
* Select a new board of directors
* Create meaningful partnerships (adobe, intuit, and MICROSOFT)
* Focus on being great, and not on competitors
* Key message in sober tone - focus on survival
1998:
* Kick off talk with Maslow's hierarchy of needs - survival, safety, social, esteem, self actualization - and how apple is progressing in these areas
* iMac
* Simplify product lineup (Pro/Consumer, desktop/laptop) - Classic!
* Transition from Os8 to OsX
1999:
* Quicktime streaming server (limited impact, but contributed to iTunes)
* Os9 (key feature: Sherlock). This was a stopgap anyways until OsX.
* iMac (new usb devices, software - including Halo, IBM Viavoice, MS Office 98)
* The big announcement is iBook - the consumer laptop. (Kodak Moment: It has a ... HANDLE. crowd goes nuts)
* And ONE more thing - Airport wireless networking (crowd goes nuts again)
2000:
* Mac OsX. Single OS strategy.
* Carbon, Cocoa, Aqua
* ... you spend months working on a button ...
* Red, yellow, green traffic lights for close, minimize, maximize.
* Key technique - set up a challenge for yourself and blow it away. (But how do you view the dock if its too small --- well we have something called magnification - crowd goes nuts)
2001:
* Retail stores
* powerbook titanium g4
* OsX launch in summer
* iTunes - more powerful yet simpler. And iPod. The shoots of apple's media strategy.
The story is pretty clear - Jobs focused on what was key at any given point in the company's history and put his all and his best people into that problem. He obsessed over it - and out thought everyone else. The results are nothing but spectacular.
The presentation technique is outstanding as well. No bullets. The projector is to show graphics, and not a mnemonic device. The audience is there to listen to you, and not to read stuff off the screen. His style is thoughtful and respectful - he makes the audience believe that he is in analysis mode and their feedback is valuable. The phrasing is precise - with emphasis on key phrases, which are reinforced on screen. The excitement comes through. There is very little focus on self, and everything is about the products.
Friday, December 25, 2009
California vs Texas
Couple of months ago Economist did a cover story comparing California and Texas, and now I noticed another article harping on the same topic.
The net migration out of the state is troubling. If it were not for the immigrants (both high tech and low tech), the state would be significantly shrinking. A few of the contributing factors are: budgeting by ballot, 60% majority required to pass budget, ceiling on property tax (which is pretty much older californians voting themselves a tax cut), and a mushrooming prison population. The high tech ecosystem is still well and alive, but with the education system falling behind, its not clear if we are going to be able to compete with the likes of bangalore and beijing. And unless there is a catastrophic crisis - things wont change.
The net migration out of the state is troubling. If it were not for the immigrants (both high tech and low tech), the state would be significantly shrinking. A few of the contributing factors are: budgeting by ballot, 60% majority required to pass budget, ceiling on property tax (which is pretty much older californians voting themselves a tax cut), and a mushrooming prison population. The high tech ecosystem is still well and alive, but with the education system falling behind, its not clear if we are going to be able to compete with the likes of bangalore and beijing. And unless there is a catastrophic crisis - things wont change.
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