Turns out while Walmart is out there optimizing logistics and cutting costs to the bone, Target has been busy building predictive analytics to figure out when to send you coupons - and hide what they know about you.
This is the new marketing - there are mountains of data and statistical tools out there that allow companies to figure out what you are up to. The new challenge is to how to use that data to drive your purchase decisions without violating your sense of privacy and fairness.
Thursday, February 16, 2012
Thursday, December 15, 2011
How to get interests of the 99% (or 99.95%) represented in congress ...
Lawrence Lessig explains that 0.05% of the population is pretty much funding the congress campaigns, and it is not surprising why congress does not represent the 99.95%. A possible modest solution - base campaign finance solely on vouchers from citizens, and the incentives will align properly. 0.05% is also the probability of this change happening anytime soon. Prof Lessig, can you raise some money to get this reform passed?
Video with Jon Stewart.
Video with Jon Stewart.
Friday, December 2, 2011
If you need $1K, the rate is 25% per annum - $1M? 4%. $1Trillion? 0.01%.
Update(12/6): Ben Bernanke's response to the article. Appears there were some inaccuracies in how it was reported. However, the point about material reform not happening still stands.
Now the details of the bailout way beyond the TARP are finally out [Bloomberg Report]. Its not pretty, trillions of dollars loaned out practically free - protecting the bonuses of the banking execs who brought on the crisis with their leveraged risk taking. So thats what the "free" part of the "free markets" meme is referring to. And the banks are bigger and more concentrated than ever, and there have been no substantial reforms. This will end well, no doubt.
Now the details of the bailout way beyond the TARP are finally out [Bloomberg Report]. Its not pretty, trillions of dollars loaned out practically free - protecting the bonuses of the banking execs who brought on the crisis with their leveraged risk taking. So thats what the "free" part of the "free markets" meme is referring to. And the banks are bigger and more concentrated than ever, and there have been no substantial reforms. This will end well, no doubt.
Monday, November 21, 2011
Thursday, November 3, 2011
The Valley - How It All Started ...
I'd never heard of this Tom Wolfe piece on the valley pioneers - Noyce, Moore, Grove, and some others less well known today. Absolutely riveting bit of history - for anyone who wonders where and how the silicon valley ethos germinated and blossomed. The parallels to today are ridiculously apparent. History doesn't repeat, but it indeed does rhyme.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
California Bleeding
What happens to local governments when the economy goes south and taxpayers refuse to pay more. Cities go broke, services get cut, and we go quickly from a fiesta to a fiasco.
The succession of financial bubbles, and the amassing of personal and public debt, Whybrow views as simply an expression of the lizard-brained way of life. A color-coded map of American personal indebtedness could be laid on top of the Centers for Disease Control’s color-coded map that illustrates the fantastic rise in rates of obesity across the United States since 1985 without disturbing the general pattern. The boom in trading activity in individual stock portfolios; the spread of legalized gambling; the rise of drug and alcohol addiction—it is all of a piece. Everywhere you turn you see Americans sacrifice their long-term interests for short-term rewards.
What happens when a society loses its ability to self-regulate, and insists on sacrificing its long-term interest for short-term rewards? How does the story end? “We could regulate ourselves if we chose to think about it,” Whybrow says. “But it does not appear that is what we are going to do.” Apart from that remote possibility, Whybrow imagines two outcomes. The first he illustrates with a true story, which might be called the parable of the pheasant. Last spring, on sabbatical from the University of Oxford, he was surprised to discover that he was able to rent an apartment inside Blenheim Palace, the Churchill family home. The previous winter at Blenheim had been harsh, and the pheasant hunters had been efficient; as a result, just a single pheasant had survived in the palace gardens. This bird had gained total control of a newly seeded field. Its intake of food, normally regulated by its environment, was now entirely unregulated: it could eat all it wanted, and it did. The pheasant grew so large that, when other birds challenged it for seed, it would simply frighten them away. The fat pheasant became a tourist attraction and even acquired a name: Henry. “Henry was the biggest pheasant anyone had ever seen,” says Whybrow. “Even after he got fat, he just ate and ate.” It didn’t take long before Henry was obese. He could still eat as much as he wanted, but he could no longer fly. Then one day he was gone: a fox ate him.
The other possible outcome was only slightly more hopeful: to hit bottom. To realize what has happened to us—because we have no other choice. “If we refuse to regulate ourselves, the only regulators are our environment,” says Whybrow, “and the way that environment deprives us.” For meaningful change to occur, in other words, we need the environment to administer the necessary level of pain.
The succession of financial bubbles, and the amassing of personal and public debt, Whybrow views as simply an expression of the lizard-brained way of life. A color-coded map of American personal indebtedness could be laid on top of the Centers for Disease Control’s color-coded map that illustrates the fantastic rise in rates of obesity across the United States since 1985 without disturbing the general pattern. The boom in trading activity in individual stock portfolios; the spread of legalized gambling; the rise of drug and alcohol addiction—it is all of a piece. Everywhere you turn you see Americans sacrifice their long-term interests for short-term rewards.
What happens when a society loses its ability to self-regulate, and insists on sacrificing its long-term interest for short-term rewards? How does the story end? “We could regulate ourselves if we chose to think about it,” Whybrow says. “But it does not appear that is what we are going to do.” Apart from that remote possibility, Whybrow imagines two outcomes. The first he illustrates with a true story, which might be called the parable of the pheasant. Last spring, on sabbatical from the University of Oxford, he was surprised to discover that he was able to rent an apartment inside Blenheim Palace, the Churchill family home. The previous winter at Blenheim had been harsh, and the pheasant hunters had been efficient; as a result, just a single pheasant had survived in the palace gardens. This bird had gained total control of a newly seeded field. Its intake of food, normally regulated by its environment, was now entirely unregulated: it could eat all it wanted, and it did. The pheasant grew so large that, when other birds challenged it for seed, it would simply frighten them away. The fat pheasant became a tourist attraction and even acquired a name: Henry. “Henry was the biggest pheasant anyone had ever seen,” says Whybrow. “Even after he got fat, he just ate and ate.” It didn’t take long before Henry was obese. He could still eat as much as he wanted, but he could no longer fly. Then one day he was gone: a fox ate him.
The other possible outcome was only slightly more hopeful: to hit bottom. To realize what has happened to us—because we have no other choice. “If we refuse to regulate ourselves, the only regulators are our environment,” says Whybrow, “and the way that environment deprives us.” For meaningful change to occur, in other words, we need the environment to administer the necessary level of pain.
Thursday, August 25, 2011
(Premature) Obituaries for Steve Jobs
It is a mark of respect Steve commands in the valley that the media is treating his resignation like an obituary for a lesser celebrity. I would not be surprised if he still has something in the tank - this is a man who keeps coming back and one upping himself, every time.
Couple of worthwhile links:
* Playboy Interview from 1985
* Notable Quotes
* Interesting Anecdote from Vic Gundotra
Couple of worthwhile links:
* Playboy Interview from 1985
* Notable Quotes
* Interesting Anecdote from Vic Gundotra
Monday, August 8, 2011
S&P - Stands for Silly and Pathetic?
S&P says US unlikely to regain AAA soon - thats okay, S&P is unlikely to regain anything resembling respect from investors either. Note that Prof Krugman points out that the downgrade actually dropped down the rates for treasuries.
Ratings agencies, we remember how much of tools you were to inflate the real estate mortgage bubble. Doing these shenanigans is not likely to help your image. Go back and do something useful - like downgrading some companies before the market punishes em, not after like you usually do.
Ratings agencies, we remember how much of tools you were to inflate the real estate mortgage bubble. Doing these shenanigans is not likely to help your image. Go back and do something useful - like downgrading some companies before the market punishes em, not after like you usually do.
Friday, August 5, 2011
Random thoughts on Overrated/Underrated products
Here are some appliances/products that have caught on even though they have significant shortcomings.
Automated Towel Dispenser: Usually is stuck with paper half the time.
Dishwasher: Takes an hour to do what it would take a person ten minutes with half as much water and detergent.
Volume Controls on Steering Wheel: Hard to hit buttons while turning. And was it really that hard to reach the dashboard?
Blackberry: People rave about the keyboard, but it is just as hard to use as the iphone touchscreen one.
And some that are clearly superior than old products.
Electric Toothbrush: Way better at cleaning back of teeth than a regular one.
Electric Shaver: No more dealing with shaving cream, or razor cuts.
Digital Watch: I'm convinced my $20 Timex is way better than $2000 Rolexes.
Turntable.fm: Way better for discovering music than radio, itunes, or spotify.
Automated Towel Dispenser: Usually is stuck with paper half the time.
Dishwasher: Takes an hour to do what it would take a person ten minutes with half as much water and detergent.
Volume Controls on Steering Wheel: Hard to hit buttons while turning. And was it really that hard to reach the dashboard?
Blackberry: People rave about the keyboard, but it is just as hard to use as the iphone touchscreen one.
And some that are clearly superior than old products.
Electric Toothbrush: Way better at cleaning back of teeth than a regular one.
Electric Shaver: No more dealing with shaving cream, or razor cuts.
Digital Watch: I'm convinced my $20 Timex is way better than $2000 Rolexes.
Turntable.fm: Way better for discovering music than radio, itunes, or spotify.
Monday, July 18, 2011
Why Fox News is in a cycle of getting progressively conservative ...
... it appears its because their viewers prefer news and opinions that align with their own point of view. A larger proportion of viewers/listeners of NPR/CNN prefer news with no point of view. This and some very interesting findings in this hefty research from Pew Research Center.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
Ten Design Commandments from Dieter Rams
My favorite: Good design is as little design as possible. Full list here. And an interview with the man.
Sunday, May 15, 2011
Being Goldman
Its good to be Goldman. While trivial entertainers Bonds and Clemens get skewered by congress for popping some pills, Blanfein laughs all the way to the bank w $12B of taxpayer savings.
Balancing Personalization and Exposure to New Ideas
How automated personalization can lead to insular bubbles and why the internet needs to provide transparency and controls on how these systems work.
Friday, April 29, 2011
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Solitude and Leadership
A lecture delivered at West Point - makes some great points about thinking, books, twitter, and Joseph Conrad. The writer is clearly an intellectual - someone who is able to bring together learning from multiple disciplines.
“Your own reality—for yourself, not for others.” Thinking for yourself means finding yourself, finding your own reality. Here’s the other problem with Facebook and Twitter and even The New York Times. When you expose yourself to those things, especially in the constant way that people do now—older people as well as younger people—you are continuously bombarding yourself with a stream of other people’s thoughts. You are marinating yourself in the conventional wisdom. In other people’s reality: for others, not for yourself. You are creating a cacophony in which it is impossible to hear your own voice, whether it’s yourself you’re thinking about or anything else. That’s what Emerson meant when he said that “he who should inspire and lead his race must be defended from travelling with the souls of other men, from living, breathing, reading, and writing in the daily, time-worn yoke of their opinions.”
“Your own reality—for yourself, not for others.” Thinking for yourself means finding yourself, finding your own reality. Here’s the other problem with Facebook and Twitter and even The New York Times. When you expose yourself to those things, especially in the constant way that people do now—older people as well as younger people—you are continuously bombarding yourself with a stream of other people’s thoughts. You are marinating yourself in the conventional wisdom. In other people’s reality: for others, not for yourself. You are creating a cacophony in which it is impossible to hear your own voice, whether it’s yourself you’re thinking about or anything else. That’s what Emerson meant when he said that “he who should inspire and lead his race must be defended from travelling with the souls of other men, from living, breathing, reading, and writing in the daily, time-worn yoke of their opinions.”
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Shirky on social software ... (and why reddit is successful).
Shirky published this piece in 2003 - and a number of sites seem to have been, if not influenced, then affected by the described dynamic.
Key tenets that have to be accepted by social software(slight edits):
1) You cannot completely separate technical and social issues.
2) Members are different than users. A pattern will arise in which there is some group of users that cares more than average about the integrity and success of the group as a whole.
3) The core group has rights that trump individual rights in some situations.
and Four things to design for:
1) Handles the user can invest in.
2) You have to design a way for there to be members in good standing. Have to design some way in which good works get recognized.
3) You need barriers to participation.You have to have some cost to either join or participate, if not at the lowest level, then at higher levels.
4) You have to find a way to spare the group from scale.
The difference between digg and reddit is (4).
Key tenets that have to be accepted by social software(slight edits):
1) You cannot completely separate technical and social issues.
2) Members are different than users. A pattern will arise in which there is some group of users that cares more than average about the integrity and success of the group as a whole.
3) The core group has rights that trump individual rights in some situations.
and Four things to design for:
1) Handles the user can invest in.
2) You have to design a way for there to be members in good standing. Have to design some way in which good works get recognized.
3) You need barriers to participation.You have to have some cost to either join or participate, if not at the lowest level, then at higher levels.
4) You have to find a way to spare the group from scale.
The difference between digg and reddit is (4).
Sunday, September 19, 2010
Hypomaniacs and Venture Capital - a match made in heaven
Profile of an entrepreneur in NYTimes. Choice quote: "Academics and hiring consultants say that many successful entrepreneurs have qualities and quirks that, if poured into their psyches in greater ratios, would qualify as full-on mental illness."
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Lewis does Greece
And the Michael Lewis world tour of financial disaster hotspots continues - he now finds himself in Greece, a country where government existed to hand out kickbacks to citizens and active non-enforcement of tax laws. In other words, the Nepal of Europe.
Sunday, August 8, 2010
How The Senate (Not) Works
George Packer of the New Yorker outlines how the great deliberative body proceeds. The image is of dysfunction - arcane rules, paucity of any meaningful cooperations, or even engagement in debate.
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