The language of the totalist environment is characterized by the thought-terminating cliché. The most far-reaching and complex of human problems are compressed into brief, highly reductive, definitive-sounding phrases, easily memorized and easily expressed. These become the start and finish of any ideological analysis.
- Robert Lifton, M.D from book Psychology of Totalism
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
Sunday, February 7, 2010
Goldman and AIG and Express Suicide
Hank Paulson was on Charlie Rose couple days ago claiming that Goldman Sachs did not see the housing bubble blowing - but this NYT article clearly shows that GS bet billions on the fact that the housing prices would go down.
Another strange thing in the article - AIG sold insurance that was, in part, contingent on its own financial health. That is, if it ever was in a compromising position, it would be required to pay out more. I would call it the Express Suicide clause. The consensus in this whole debacle seems like GS was able to find a trading partner who was rich and incompetent, and just big enough that it could be deemed too big to fail.
And now if the banks claim that they have returned the TARP funds, the follow up should be - has AIG? AIG is just as likely as GM to pay back anything. And those losses directly paid off GS ($12+ billion) and others like Societe General.
Another strange thing in the article - AIG sold insurance that was, in part, contingent on its own financial health. That is, if it ever was in a compromising position, it would be required to pay out more. I would call it the Express Suicide clause. The consensus in this whole debacle seems like GS was able to find a trading partner who was rich and incompetent, and just big enough that it could be deemed too big to fail.
And now if the banks claim that they have returned the TARP funds, the follow up should be - has AIG? AIG is just as likely as GM to pay back anything. And those losses directly paid off GS ($12+ billion) and others like Societe General.
Tuesday, December 29, 2009
Healtcare - is more better?
Riveting piece of writing from New Yorkers' Atul Gawade. He parachutes into McAllen, TX and tries to find out why the county has the highest healthcare costs per capita in the country. I wont even try to distill what he has to say - worth reading every single word.
Monday, December 28, 2009
Free the markets? ... Now right now, not right now.
The housing crash has encouraged the government to get very hands on in managing the economy and put the free market principles on hold indefinitely. Calculated Risk has a list of government programs that are in place that impact the housing pricing.
The US government is now in the business of propping up house prices, and that is going to be bad for the economy and taxpayers in the medium and long run. The true price of housing is very hard to figure out right now - and certainly prices will be lower if these programs go away. And many of these programs are extremely inefficient, costing the taxpayers 10X more than the actual benefit delivered to the homeowners. And the artificially low interest rates are also wreaking havoc on many parts of the economy and causing a boom in risky assets - and that bubble will pop sooner or later. The quicker these distortionary policies end, the better off the economy is going to be. Until then, rational people will stay clear of investing in anything that has to do with housing - that puts your financial fate on the hand of the government, a risk that caclulates out to be not worth taking.
The US government is now in the business of propping up house prices, and that is going to be bad for the economy and taxpayers in the medium and long run. The true price of housing is very hard to figure out right now - and certainly prices will be lower if these programs go away. And many of these programs are extremely inefficient, costing the taxpayers 10X more than the actual benefit delivered to the homeowners. And the artificially low interest rates are also wreaking havoc on many parts of the economy and causing a boom in risky assets - and that bubble will pop sooner or later. The quicker these distortionary policies end, the better off the economy is going to be. Until then, rational people will stay clear of investing in anything that has to do with housing - that puts your financial fate on the hand of the government, a risk that caclulates out to be not worth taking.
Sunday, December 27, 2009
Steve Jobs Keynote Marathon
Watching a series of Jobs' keynotes at Macworld after he took over the reins in 1997. A summary of his presentations:
1997:
* Select a new board of directors
* Create meaningful partnerships (adobe, intuit, and MICROSOFT)
* Focus on being great, and not on competitors
* Key message in sober tone - focus on survival
1998:
* Kick off talk with Maslow's hierarchy of needs - survival, safety, social, esteem, self actualization - and how apple is progressing in these areas
* iMac
* Simplify product lineup (Pro/Consumer, desktop/laptop) - Classic!
* Transition from Os8 to OsX
1999:
* Quicktime streaming server (limited impact, but contributed to iTunes)
* Os9 (key feature: Sherlock). This was a stopgap anyways until OsX.
* iMac (new usb devices, software - including Halo, IBM Viavoice, MS Office 98)
* The big announcement is iBook - the consumer laptop. (Kodak Moment: It has a ... HANDLE. crowd goes nuts)
* And ONE more thing - Airport wireless networking (crowd goes nuts again)
2000:
* Mac OsX. Single OS strategy.
* Carbon, Cocoa, Aqua
* ... you spend months working on a button ...
* Red, yellow, green traffic lights for close, minimize, maximize.
* Key technique - set up a challenge for yourself and blow it away. (But how do you view the dock if its too small --- well we have something called magnification - crowd goes nuts)
2001:
* Retail stores
* powerbook titanium g4
* OsX launch in summer
* iTunes - more powerful yet simpler. And iPod. The shoots of apple's media strategy.
The story is pretty clear - Jobs focused on what was key at any given point in the company's history and put his all and his best people into that problem. He obsessed over it - and out thought everyone else. The results are nothing but spectacular.
The presentation technique is outstanding as well. No bullets. The projector is to show graphics, and not a mnemonic device. The audience is there to listen to you, and not to read stuff off the screen. His style is thoughtful and respectful - he makes the audience believe that he is in analysis mode and their feedback is valuable. The phrasing is precise - with emphasis on key phrases, which are reinforced on screen. The excitement comes through. There is very little focus on self, and everything is about the products.
1997:
* Select a new board of directors
* Create meaningful partnerships (adobe, intuit, and MICROSOFT)
* Focus on being great, and not on competitors
* Key message in sober tone - focus on survival
1998:
* Kick off talk with Maslow's hierarchy of needs - survival, safety, social, esteem, self actualization - and how apple is progressing in these areas
* iMac
* Simplify product lineup (Pro/Consumer, desktop/laptop) - Classic!
* Transition from Os8 to OsX
1999:
* Quicktime streaming server (limited impact, but contributed to iTunes)
* Os9 (key feature: Sherlock). This was a stopgap anyways until OsX.
* iMac (new usb devices, software - including Halo, IBM Viavoice, MS Office 98)
* The big announcement is iBook - the consumer laptop. (Kodak Moment: It has a ... HANDLE. crowd goes nuts)
* And ONE more thing - Airport wireless networking (crowd goes nuts again)
2000:
* Mac OsX. Single OS strategy.
* Carbon, Cocoa, Aqua
* ... you spend months working on a button ...
* Red, yellow, green traffic lights for close, minimize, maximize.
* Key technique - set up a challenge for yourself and blow it away. (But how do you view the dock if its too small --- well we have something called magnification - crowd goes nuts)
2001:
* Retail stores
* powerbook titanium g4
* OsX launch in summer
* iTunes - more powerful yet simpler. And iPod. The shoots of apple's media strategy.
The story is pretty clear - Jobs focused on what was key at any given point in the company's history and put his all and his best people into that problem. He obsessed over it - and out thought everyone else. The results are nothing but spectacular.
The presentation technique is outstanding as well. No bullets. The projector is to show graphics, and not a mnemonic device. The audience is there to listen to you, and not to read stuff off the screen. His style is thoughtful and respectful - he makes the audience believe that he is in analysis mode and their feedback is valuable. The phrasing is precise - with emphasis on key phrases, which are reinforced on screen. The excitement comes through. There is very little focus on self, and everything is about the products.
Friday, December 25, 2009
California vs Texas
Couple of months ago Economist did a cover story comparing California and Texas, and now I noticed another article harping on the same topic.
The net migration out of the state is troubling. If it were not for the immigrants (both high tech and low tech), the state would be significantly shrinking. A few of the contributing factors are: budgeting by ballot, 60% majority required to pass budget, ceiling on property tax (which is pretty much older californians voting themselves a tax cut), and a mushrooming prison population. The high tech ecosystem is still well and alive, but with the education system falling behind, its not clear if we are going to be able to compete with the likes of bangalore and beijing. And unless there is a catastrophic crisis - things wont change.
The net migration out of the state is troubling. If it were not for the immigrants (both high tech and low tech), the state would be significantly shrinking. A few of the contributing factors are: budgeting by ballot, 60% majority required to pass budget, ceiling on property tax (which is pretty much older californians voting themselves a tax cut), and a mushrooming prison population. The high tech ecosystem is still well and alive, but with the education system falling behind, its not clear if we are going to be able to compete with the likes of bangalore and beijing. And unless there is a catastrophic crisis - things wont change.
Friday, November 20, 2009
Pinker on Decline of Violence
As we get caught in the constant focus on negativity in the media, its hard to lose track of the grander picture. Violence has been on decline over the ages, centuries, decades and years. Thanks, Professor Pinker for not limiting your talks to linguistics!
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Eight Best Questions from Venture Capitalists
Great post on Techcrunch by Redfin's Glenn Kelman.
1. What’s your deadly sin?
Sequoia’s Roelof Botha said he only invests in companies that let consumers indulge in one of the seven deadly sins. He rattled them off with alarming familiarity. “You don’t want to be the site that people should use,” Roelof said. “You want to be the site they can’t stop using.”
... and many more.
1. What’s your deadly sin?
Sequoia’s Roelof Botha said he only invests in companies that let consumers indulge in one of the seven deadly sins. He rattled them off with alarming familiarity. “You don’t want to be the site that people should use,” Roelof said. “You want to be the site they can’t stop using.”
... and many more.
Friday, November 6, 2009
Cautionary Tale of How Not to Respond to Critical Questions
When Michael Arrington (or any media rep) asks a tough question, its better to be transparent and respectful, rather than take the route of aggression and denial. The CEO in question here responded with french, and started a war of words with the TechCrunch head. It was quite futile really - as a friend of mine said - "People listen to Bloggers, not to bland CEOs".
It started out here:
http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/10/31/scamville-the-social-gaming-ecosystem-of-hell/
And ended with this:
http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/11/05/scamville-new-offerpal-ceo-admits-mistakes-makes-bold-promises/
Its all quite tragic really - a founder who probably worked years to build their company gets edged out because of a public faux pas. However, it was not just the outburst that led to the demise, but really shady business practices that were spotlighted because of the vehemence of the response. And most people, including investors, figured there must be something behind all of this.
In order for online advertising to gain legitimacy and share of budget proportional to attention share, there must be transparency across the whole value chain - all the way from the users, to the site publishers, to the ad networks, and advertisers. Thanks to Michael, this conversation has been initiated - lets see where it goes from here.
It started out here:
http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/10/31/scamville-the-social-gaming-ecosystem-of-hell/
And ended with this:
http://www.techcrunch.com/2009/11/05/scamville-new-offerpal-ceo-admits-mistakes-makes-bold-promises/
Its all quite tragic really - a founder who probably worked years to build their company gets edged out because of a public faux pas. However, it was not just the outburst that led to the demise, but really shady business practices that were spotlighted because of the vehemence of the response. And most people, including investors, figured there must be something behind all of this.
In order for online advertising to gain legitimacy and share of budget proportional to attention share, there must be transparency across the whole value chain - all the way from the users, to the site publishers, to the ad networks, and advertisers. Thanks to Michael, this conversation has been initiated - lets see where it goes from here.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Public Relations - Propaganda's Teenage Cousin
Interesting Google tech talk.
"People's perception of sizes of risks are based on emotional and not national factors"
"Managing the outrage is more important than managing the hazard"
"Marketing is a battle of perception, not products. Truth has no bearing on the issue"
What we have seen in the last decade, or even the last few weeks, is that we are still quite susceptibility to propaganda techniques. While people may think and claim to be rational and logical, they are inherently biased and tend do gravitate towards opinion sources that line up with their own. There is also the herd effect or the tipping point type behavior that still is stronger than ever. Framing tactics are still used frequently and effectively both by politicians as well as corporations.
Question authority and your own instincts, ask for facts, separate the message from the messenger - and encourage everyone else to do so. One day, we will, as a species overcome the shortcomings of our fish brain.
"People's perception of sizes of risks are based on emotional and not national factors"
"Managing the outrage is more important than managing the hazard"
"Marketing is a battle of perception, not products. Truth has no bearing on the issue"
What we have seen in the last decade, or even the last few weeks, is that we are still quite susceptibility to propaganda techniques. While people may think and claim to be rational and logical, they are inherently biased and tend do gravitate towards opinion sources that line up with their own. There is also the herd effect or the tipping point type behavior that still is stronger than ever. Framing tactics are still used frequently and effectively both by politicians as well as corporations.
Question authority and your own instincts, ask for facts, separate the message from the messenger - and encourage everyone else to do so. One day, we will, as a species overcome the shortcomings of our fish brain.
Monday, September 7, 2009
I Learned Everything About History From Cartoons
Somewhat less, lets say ... polished, than the Cartoon History of the Universe but equally enjoyable - World War One: Simple Version and World War Two: Simple Version.
Sunday, September 6, 2009
Charlie Wilson's Movie
Re-watching Charlie Wilson's War on HBO. A movie that truly gets better each time you watch it, and its chock full of good quotes and WTF moments. Just in the last 15 minutes:
* Gen Zia gets introduced in his fete as "Zia didnt kill Bhutto"
* A bellydancing baptist girl entertaining an Egyptian minister
* Gust Avrakotos to Joanne Herring: "I dont see god within miles of this conflict, but if you sleep with me I may change my mind mighty quick" and
*"As long as the press sees sex and drugs behind the left hand, you can park a battle carrier behind the right hand and no one's gonna f***ing notice. "
* Israeli arms dealers shipping tanks to the Pakistani government
* A US Senator lecturing the afghans on how America is always on God's side and they respond with Allahu Akbar.
* Kovraktos to Wilson: "Youre not really stupid, just in congress"
Truth, as always, is stranger than fiction, and if a good storyteller presents it, a whole lot funnier as well. Related: Wag the Dog
* Gen Zia gets introduced in his fete as "Zia didnt kill Bhutto"
* A bellydancing baptist girl entertaining an Egyptian minister
* Gust Avrakotos to Joanne Herring: "I dont see god within miles of this conflict, but if you sleep with me I may change my mind mighty quick" and
*"As long as the press sees sex and drugs behind the left hand, you can park a battle carrier behind the right hand and no one's gonna f***ing notice. "
* Israeli arms dealers shipping tanks to the Pakistani government
* A US Senator lecturing the afghans on how America is always on God's side and they respond with Allahu Akbar.
* Kovraktos to Wilson: "Youre not really stupid, just in congress"
Truth, as always, is stranger than fiction, and if a good storyteller presents it, a whole lot funnier as well. Related: Wag the Dog
Motivational Rewards - DONT WORK (well most times)
When it comes to complex cognition oriented tasks, rewards actually hinder progress rather than facilitate it. In the kinds of challenges we deal with in a knowledge based economy, pay for performance is precisely the wrong way to structure compensation. A better model to understand performance : Autonomy, Mastery, Purpose. Align your organization to these goals and values, and you are more likely to succeed. Case in point: Britannica vs Wikipedia (ie unpaid unmanaged yet self motivated hordes create a product that makes obsolete a product created by experts over many decades).
Friday, September 4, 2009
Warring Economists
The eighty years of peace and the great moderation is over, and the battleaxes are out - Paul Krugman reports that hostilities are breaking out among the Freshwater and Saltwater economists. Good overview of evolution of economic thinking over the past century, and how finance and economics play off of each other. Some choice quotes:
"...because a two-quart bottle of ketchup costs twice as much as a one-quart bottle, finance theorists declare that the price of ketchup must be right."
“the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
"Larry Summers once began a paper on finance by declaring: “THERE ARE IDIOTS. Look around.”"
"...because a two-quart bottle of ketchup costs twice as much as a one-quart bottle, finance theorists declare that the price of ketchup must be right."
“the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”
"Larry Summers once began a paper on finance by declaring: “THERE ARE IDIOTS. Look around.”"
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Crowdsourcing Awesomeness
In addition to showing traffic on the highways, Google Maps now shows it for city roads as well. The awesome part is how they do it - they compute the speed of geolocation enabled phones to figure out what the average speed on a given stretch of road is. All this without needing to dig up roads and installing sensors - pure genius!
Friday, August 7, 2009
Lectures on Godel, Escher, Bach
MIT Open Courseware has lectures from a course in GEB, one of my favorite books. Havent watched any yet, but intend to do so over the weekend.
Saturday, August 1, 2009
Nominating Michael Pollan
... to be the secretary of food. A compelling investigation into how Americans devolved from cooks to spectators.
The usual Pollan arch-villian, corporations, are of course to blame. On a meta level, the concept is not limited just to cooking. There are a lot fewer doers compared to watchers. Thats why Nike switched from "Just Do It" to "Witness" (I despise those commercials and tshirts). Why bother to get your bottom off of the couch, just watch someone gifted perform - and make sure you wear whatever they are wearing. Now where is my copy of No Logo ?
The usual Pollan arch-villian, corporations, are of course to blame. On a meta level, the concept is not limited just to cooking. There are a lot fewer doers compared to watchers. Thats why Nike switched from "Just Do It" to "Witness" (I despise those commercials and tshirts). Why bother to get your bottom off of the couch, just watch someone gifted perform - and make sure you wear whatever they are wearing. Now where is my copy of No Logo ?
Sunday, July 26, 2009
New Money in An Ancient Land
A fleeting, ethereal piece published on Granta about the newly rich in Delhi. Quite a strikingly different world from the one that used to exist a couple decades ago. Just like in Russia, Brazil, and China - the economic liberalization has produced a new strata of newly rich who are grappling with what to do with the seemingly endless wealth that is now on their fingertips. A sales girl in the article blurts out:
‘When someone comes in here looking to buy a Bentley, we don’t ask him what he’s driving now. Just because he drives a BMW doesn’t mean he can afford a Bentley. We ask if he has a jet or a yacht. We ask if he has an island.’
And as usual there is the predictable lamention of the existing rulers who see the crass attitudes of the newcomers:
'You see, there are two kinds of rich. There are people who’ve had money for a long time and they don’t give a f*** who you are. They’ll be nice to you anyway. Like I’m nice to people. You may get bored being around them, because all they talk about is how they’ve just got back from Cannes or St-Tropez, but they won’t kick you out. But the people who’ve got rich in the last five years, they turn up at a party and the first thing they do is put their car keys down on the table to show they have a Bentley. They don’t know how to behave.’
Very different portrait of a city from that of Mumbai, which was painted so vividly by Suketu Mehta in Maximum City. I hope Khuswant Singh writes a contemporary update to his absorbing historic novel about Delhi someday.
‘When someone comes in here looking to buy a Bentley, we don’t ask him what he’s driving now. Just because he drives a BMW doesn’t mean he can afford a Bentley. We ask if he has a jet or a yacht. We ask if he has an island.’
And as usual there is the predictable lamention of the existing rulers who see the crass attitudes of the newcomers:
'You see, there are two kinds of rich. There are people who’ve had money for a long time and they don’t give a f*** who you are. They’ll be nice to you anyway. Like I’m nice to people. You may get bored being around them, because all they talk about is how they’ve just got back from Cannes or St-Tropez, but they won’t kick you out. But the people who’ve got rich in the last five years, they turn up at a party and the first thing they do is put their car keys down on the table to show they have a Bentley. They don’t know how to behave.’
Very different portrait of a city from that of Mumbai, which was painted so vividly by Suketu Mehta in Maximum City. I hope Khuswant Singh writes a contemporary update to his absorbing historic novel about Delhi someday.
Sunday, July 12, 2009
And now the AIG post-mortem
Another piece of the jigsaw puzzle - as the world pieces together the making of the subprime bomb. Michael Lewis writes about the dealings at AIG.
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